CGTN: How Xi’s ‘Thucydides Trap’ question frames new chapter in China-US ties
CGTN published an article examining how Chinese President Xi Jinping raised the “Thucydides Trap” as a conceptual lens to emphasize that strategic competition between China and the United States need not lead to confrontation, during US President Donald Trump’s visit to China. It highlights the two sides’ agreement to build a “constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability,” characterized by moderate competition, manageable differences and cooperation as a core element.
“Can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major-country relations?” Chinese President Xi Jinping asked the question during his talks with US President Donald Trump on Thursday, placing a broader historical question at the center of a state visit as an effort to steer the world’s most consequential relationship toward stability.
The phrase, repeatedly invoked by Xi in recent years, refers to the theory that conflict often erupts when a rising power challenges an established one. By raising it again, Xi signaled China’s view that strategic competition between Beijing and Washington need not end in confrontation if both sides choose a managed relationship over a zero-sum approach.
That message shaped the tone of Trump’s May 14-15 visit to China, which concluded on Friday.
The two leaders agreed on a new positioning for bilateral ties, pledging to build a “constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability.” Xi cast the positioning as a response to what he described as “the questions vital to history, to the world and to the people.”
“Constructive strategic stability” should be a positive stability with cooperation as the mainstay, a sound stability with moderate competition, a constant stability with manageable differences, and an enduring stability with promises of peace, he said.
For China, the emphasis was not on eliminating competition but on preventing rivalry from overwhelming the entire relationship.
“The breakthrough is that it neither denies competition nor allows competition to define everything,” said Sun Chenghao, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. He said the framework recognizes that structural differences will persist while seeking to keep them “bounded and manageable.”
‘Realistic middle ground’
This approach represents not only a conceptual reframing of how the two countries define their ties but also a practical adjustment in response to frictions across multiple fronts of the relationship.
Analysts say the talks in Beijing reflected a growing understanding in both countries that prolonged escalation has become increasingly costly. Years of tariff disputes, technology restrictions and supply-chain tensions have reshaped global markets while sharpening concerns over strategic miscalculation.
Sun Taiyi, an associate professor at Christopher Newport University in the United States, said both sides now recognize that “stability itself has become a shared strategic interest.”
“What is emerging now is a more realistic middle ground,” he said. “Neither full confrontation nor full separation is sustainable.”
That logic was especially visible in the economic dimension of the talks. Xi stressed that China-US economic ties are mutually beneficial and win-win in nature. “Where disagreements and frictions exist, equal-footed consultation is the only right choice,” he added.
The talks, observers say, effectively sought to recalibrate the direction of bilateral economic ties.
Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, said cooperation should again become the “main aspect” of the relationship, while competition must remain benign and controlled.
He pointed to trade, investment and technology as areas where practical cooperation could gradually expand if supported by stable dialogue mechanisms.
The presence of prominent US business executives in Trump’s delegation reinforced the reality that economic interdependence exerts a stabilizing pull on the relationship.
Stabilizing mechanism
The visit also carries global significance.
As permanent members of the UN Security Council, China and the United States carry responsibilities extending far beyond bilateral ties. Against the backdrop of Middle East tensions, inflation pressures and fragile supply chains, any sustained coordination between the two powers could help steady global markets and geopolitical expectations.
Jose Ricardo, chief executive officer of the Brazil Business Leaders Organization in China, said discussions between Beijing and Washington on cooperation and coexistence were important for world stability and business confidence.
While analysts caution that deep disagreements remain, the visit’s significance resided less in resolving those disputes immediately than in establishing a strategic floor beneath them.
According to Xi, the two sides agreed to strengthen communication and coordination on international and regional issues, a signal Sun Chenghao said underscored the role of head-of-state diplomacy and sustained high-level engagement.
Both sides not only expressed goodwill but also did not shy away from major differences, indicating that communication itself is part of the stabilizing mechanism, he added.
